Our Co-Founder Tyler Chesser recently provided comments to Les Shaver of Multifamily Dive on how the current conflict with Iran is impacting the market.

In short: the conflict’s effects on the 10-year Treasury are driving up financing costs and making underwriting more challenging.

That said, our view at CF Capital hasn't changed: if we tried to time the geopolitical cycle over long-term fundamentals, we'd never transact. The signal still matters more than the noise.

Read the full story here.

In today’s environment, the conversation around alternatives is no longer about whether to allocate, but where and with whom.

Multifamily rent growth is projected to reaccelerate to roughly 2–4% in 2026 as new supply declines sharply from its 2024 peak. Four years of market distress have wiped out many undercapitalized, overleveraged and inexperienced operators. As family offices and private wealth platforms continue to increase exposure to private markets, manager selection is now the primary source of edge.

We’re operating in a true dispersion era. Two sponsors can pursue nearly identical strategies in the same market and deliver meaningfully different outcomes. The difference is rarely the macro—it’s execution.

Operator vs. Allocator

A useful lens to evaluate different managers is determining who is an operator and who is an allocator. Allocators forecast returns based on market assumptions; operators actively shape outcomes by controlling the underlying drivers of performance—leasing, expense management, capital improvements and tenant retention.

With a market reset now clear and deal flow unlocked, deploying investment along a cyclical wave is not going to create separation from competitors.  In today’s market, active management that focuses on and has a track record of controlling NOI is what will ensure consistency and distinction over volatility.

Process Metrics

To understand if a manager takes an active, operator over allocator approach, headline IRRs are less instructive than metrics that show a disciplined approach to achieve strong returns. Process-oriented questions to evaluate discipline include:

• How quickly and efficiently are value-add programs executed?
• What does tenant retention look like through cycles?
• How tightly are bad debt and operating expenses managed relative to underwriting?
• How often do actual results deviate from initial projections—and in which direction?

These are the signals of repeatability.

Red Flags

At the same time, certain structural red flags have become more consequential in a more competitive multifamily investment environment. Among them:

• Underwriting that leaves little margin for error.
• Insufficient reserves relative to business plan complexity.
• Misaligned or unclear fee structures that prioritize activity over fundamentals.
• Short-duration debt supporting longer-duration strategies.

Each of these can erode otherwise sound investment theses and favorable market conditions.

The broader takeaway is straightforward: structure and discipline matter more than timing.  Manager selection, grounded in execution capability and attention to deail, is what ultimately determines whether a strategy delivers on its promise of consistent, distinguished returns.

Our Co-Founder and Managing Partner Tyler Chesser shared his analysis with Multifamily Dive on the Federal Reserve announcement this week that current interest rates would hold steady.

Tyler's take: with sticky inflation, elevated energy prices from the Iran conflict and a Fed chair on his way out the door, there was never cover to cut. The market knew it, and the 10-year Treasury, not the funds rate, is what’s actually moving multifamily capital costs.

For those underwriting Midwest multifamily right now, the message is the same as it’s been: don’t wait for a rate cut to do your job for you. Underwrite conservatively, mind your basis, and let the fundamentals carry the deal.

Read the full article here.

The multifamily sector is at a clear inflection point, rewarding fundamentals and durability over speculation, write our founders Tyler Chesser and Bryan Flaherty for Multi-Housing News.

In this piece linked here, Tyler and Bryan outline what discipline looks like in today’s multifamily landscape and where investors can find opportunities. This includes generating stable income performance by shifting away from assumption-driven returns, focusing on transparency over financial engineering, and prioritizing operational execution.

Take a read and let us know your thoughts.