WEBINAR: WHAT INVESTORS WANT NOW:
Making the Case for Multifamily in an Uncertain Market
July 2025
Join CF Capital founders Tyler Chesser and Bryan Flaherty for an in depth conversation on why multifamily remains a great investment vehicle during uncertain markets. Joined by host, Sarah Quinn of ConnectCRE, Tyler and Bryan share some of CF's key strategies, project examples and why the Midwest and Southeast remain active targets. Listen in.
STABILITY THROUGH CYCLES:
Navigating Multifamily Investing in 2025 and Beyond
Executive Summary
"The multifamily real estate market in 2025 is poised for continued evolution, shaped by economic trends, demographic shifts, and investor demand for stability. With interest rates stabilizing, rental demand increasing, and affordability pressures limiting homeownership, multifamily assets remain a cornerstone for wealth preservation and growth. This report explores key market drivers, growth opportunities, and CF Capital’s strategic approach to navigating this dynamic landscape."
We invite you to click the link below, and we'll examine other Macro-Economic Trends Impacting Multifamily; Inflation and Market Stability; Housing Affordability and Rental Demand; and perhaps most important, Multifamily Market Performance and Predictions and our Investment and Risk Management Strategies we employ to smooth the rippled waters...
Inside this White Paper, we share:
👉 Download the report now to explore how our investment principles and disciplined operations are creating opportunity despite today’s volatility.
Hello Friends and Investors,
It’s hard to believe we’re nearly at the halfway mark of 2025. The first five months of this year have provided clarity on several fronts: how the market is adjusting to elevated interest rates, how demand for multifamily housing is evolving, and where new opportunities are beginning to emerge. In short—the Midwest multifamily market remains resilient, but it’s a market that rewards discipline. We’re seeing both encouraging stability and some headwinds to navigate carefully as we look ahead to the second half of the year. Below is a snapshot of the key trends shaping our strategy moving forward.
Market Overview
Market Trends at Mid-Year
Occupancy & Rent Growth:
Midwest Class A/B suburban assets continue to outperform many U.S. markets in terms of occupancy and rent growth. As of May:
Absorption:
Net absorption in the Midwest remains healthy and above national trends, driven by steady job growth and in-migration from more expensive markets. Suburban submarkets are absorbing new supply well, while some urban core areas are seeing slower lease-ups due to affordability gaps.
Supply & Construction:
New starts are slowing. Rising construction costs, volatile financing, and elevated interest rates have caused many developers to delay or cancel projects. We expect the supply pipeline to materially contract after late 2025, which will further strengthen fundamentals for existing assets heading into 2026–2027.
Capital Markets:
Financing remains expensive, but interest rates appear to have peaked. The market anticipates potential Fed rate cuts later this year, which could help improve debt terms by 2026. Cap rates in Midwest markets remain 5.25% to 6.25%, offering attractive relative yields.
How We’re Adjusting Our Strategy for H2 2025
Acquisitions:
We are taking a high-conviction, selective approach. We continue to prioritize off-market and value-driven opportunities where pricing reflects current realities—not 2021 expectations.
Operations:
Operational execution is more important than ever in this environment:
Capital Markets & Financing:
We are actively working on several refinancing initiatives to position properties for longer-term holds and enhanced cash flow while navigating to more favorable exit conditions.
Patience is key: We are not forced sellers. With stabilized assets at extended financing terms, we can time future exits to align with stronger capital markets.
Exits:
With cap rates still elevated and buyer demand selective, we are not pursuing near-term exits unless pricing achieves close to underwritten returns. The better path for most assets today is to optimize performance, refinance where advantageous, and target exit in a more favorable cycle (2026–2027+), when interest rates and transaction velocity are likely to improve.
CF Capital's Strategic Positioning
Here’s where we’re focused:
We believe the next 12–18 months will offer some of the most compelling buying opportunities in years—for those ready to act. Our approach remains long-term, disciplined, and data-driven.
Active Opportunity
Coming Soon! We have an active high-yield lending deal secured by quality real estate coming soon. We'll be announcing more details to the investor base soon. Stay tuned!
CF In the News
MULTI-HOUSING NEWS
At the beginning of 2025, multifamily investment was set up for another strong year, with investors more interested in assets across a wider range of markets than than at any point since the rate hikes began in 2022. Check out where CF Capital's Tyler Chesser opined on the market. Read More
MULTIFAMILY DIVE
In the three years since the Federal Reserve began hiking interest rates, apartment buyers and sellers have grown accustomed to dealing with volatility when underwriting deals. Tyler also contributed to this article - check it out. Read More
Featured Articles
REALPAGE - Midwest Region Leads U.S. in Rent Growth in April
The Midwest has led the nation for rent growth in recent years, straying from the region’s “slow and steady” reputation. As of April 2025, the Midwest reported the highest annual rent growth of any region nationwide at 3.6%. That was notably ahead of the U.S. average of 1%. Read More
CRE DAILY - CRE Recovery Holds, but Maturity Walls and Distress Loom
CRE transaction volumes have continued rebounding in 2025, but distress levels and loan maturities suggest turbulence. Read More
CF Capital Updates
A Personal Note from the Team
It’s been a busy spring not only for the markets but for our team personally—and we wanted to share a few happy updates from the CF Capital family:
We’re grateful to work alongside such a talented and close-knit team, and it’s special to celebrate these personal milestones alongside our professional growth.
Quote of the Month
"Soon is not as good as now."- Seth Godin
Looking Ahead
As we move into the back half of 2025, we remain confident in the long-term fundamentals of the Midwest multifamily sector. Demand is steady, new supply is slowing, and while the capital markets remain choppy, signs point to a more favorable environment emerging over the next 12–24 months.
At CF Capital, we will continue to lean on discipline, operational excellence, and strategic patience—a recipe we believe will generate strong long-term results for our investors.
As always, we appreciate your trust and partnership. If you’d like to discuss the market or any of our current strategies in more detail, we’d welcome the conversation.
In Partnership, Tyler & Bryan
May Blog – Q2 Capital Markets Update
In today’s multifamily market, the difference between a good investment and a great one often comes down to how you capitalize—not just what you acquire.
The CF Capital approach is simple and focused: We combine deep market intelligence, disciplined execution, and a vertically integrated platform to create long-term value through multifamily real estate. That mindset is proving essential in 2025, as capital markets sit at a cautious crossroads.
Volatile treasuries, unclear Fed signals, and choppy economic data are keeping many investors on the sidelines. But we believe in precision over prediction. Rather than wait for clarity, we act with focus—backed by a rigorous investment framework and a clear understanding of where risk meets reward.
We’re navigating a “higher-for-longer” interest rate environment by revisiting our underwriting, staying nimble on pricing, and sharpening our assumptions around cap rates, rent growth and expenses. We’re structuring deals to perform across cycles—not just in ideal conditions.
Where are we active? In markets in our region with demographic momentum, constrained supply, and strong wage growth—areas where durable demand supports both income and asset value. And we’re using structured capital tools, including preferred equity at times and flexible financing, to optimize returns while protecting downside.
We’re also focused on opportunities emerging from the debt maturity wall. Assets with expiring low-rate loans are coming to market, and we’re targeting those with repositioning potential or refi-ready profiles.
One recent example is a property we acquired in the Midwest where we launched a focused value-add program - upgrading interiors and improving digital leasing workflows. That’s operational alpha in motion—measurable, material, and repeatable.
CF Capital is not a wait-and-see firm. We’re built to act—with an in-house team that spans acquisitions, asset management, construction, and property operations. That integration gives us the speed, control, and insight to move decisively, even when the broader market hesitates.
As always, our mission remains clear: connect and service capital to high-quality multifamily housing investments in the Midwest and Southeast. This means delivering strong, risk-adjusted returns through thoughtful investing and hands-on execution. In today’s climate, that means staying grounded in fundamentals, building for resiliency, and making prudent long term-oriented investment decisions.
Hello Friends and Investors,
As Louisville wrapped up another unforgettable Kentucky Derby season, we’re reminded why this region is so special—not just culturally, but economically. While the world descended on Churchill Downs for the 151st Run for the Roses, our focus at CF Capital has remained steady: identifying resilient opportunities in multifamily housing across our broader region.
And the timing is compelling. We’re in a transitional phase of the real estate cycle. National headlines spotlight high interest rates, capital market uncertainty, and slower transaction volume—but on the ground in the Midwest and upper Southeast, we’re seeing strong occupancy, rent growth outpacing national averages, and early signs of a market rebound.
Midwest Multifamily Market: Resilience in the Heartland
Class A/B suburban assets in Louisville, Indianapolis, Columbus, and Cincinnati continue to perform well:
The region’s steady job markets, in-migration, and relative affordability continue to support long-term multifamily demand.
Capital Markets & Financing: Challenging but Stabilizing
The Midwest is benefitting from its steady job markets, population in-migration, and relative affordability—all of which support long-term multifamily demand.
Interest rates remain elevated, with most agency debt pricing between 5.35%–6%, depending on leverage and structure. Still, we’re seeing encouraging signs:
We’re maintaining discipline in our underwriting, prioritizing deals with strong in-place cash flow and purchase prices below replacement cost.
Supply & Construction: Slowing Pipeline, Higher Costs
Construction is moderating across the Midwest—a favorable trend for investors looking 18–24 months ahead:
Featured Articles
5 Steps to “Do More Good“ and Make a Lasting Impact
We can all learn so much about living from Dan. His legacy illustrates how we too can make not only a living but also a lasting impact. The book features lessons that Ghosh, a non-profit executive and entrepreneur, has learned from 30 very different people with whom he has spent time throughout his career.
U.S. Apartment Market Sees Strong Leasing Momentum
The U.S. apartment market saw strong momentum in new lease trade-out in the first three months of 2025. The month-over-month change in new lease trade-out ranked consistently around 1.4% in January, February and March.
CF Capital's Strategic Positioning
Here’s where we’re focused:
We believe the next 12–18 months will offer some of the most compelling buying opportunities in years—for those ready to act. Our approach remains long-term, disciplined, and data-driven.
As Derby season winds down and we head into summer, our outlook remains strong for multifamily in our core markets—Kentucky, Indiana, Tennessee, and Ohio. Resilient demand, stable cash flow, and long-term appreciation make this asset class one of the most attractive places to invest today.
Thank you for your continued trust and partnership. We welcome your questions and look forward to sharing new opportunities soon.
In Partnership,
Tyler & Bryan
Hello Friends and Investors,
As Q2 begins, the multifamily market continues to navigate a dynamic landscape. While the Federal Reserve has maintained its cautious stance on rate cuts, signs of capital markets thawing are beginning to emerge. Meanwhile, rent growth is stabilizing, transaction activity is slowly increasing, and operational efficiency remains a top priority for investors and operators alike.
At CF Capital, fresh off our quarterly offsite leadership meeting, we are laser-focused on identifying high-quality acquisition opportunities, optimizing portfolio performance, and maintaining a disciplined investment approach. Here’s what’s shaping our outlook this month:
1. Multifamily Market Update: Signs of Momentum
2. Midwest Multifamily Insights: Strength in Stability
The Midwest remains one of the most stable and attractive regions for multifamily investment, particularly in this phase of the cycle.
Our focus remains on sourcing value-add opportunities where we can maximize operational efficiencies and drive sustainable cash flow.
3. CF Capital Updates: Momentum & Growth Initiatives
Featured Articles
FHFA Chief Reverses Biden-Era Renter Protections
Federal renter protections introduced by the Biden administration have been rolled back as the new head of the FHFA moves to reduce compliance burdens on landlords and lenders.
The ABCs of apartments: Demystifying the debate over asset classes
In what is often a heated topic, industry pros differ on what constitutes a class A, B and C building.
Looking Ahead
With the economic landscape evolving, our approach remains focused, disciplined, and opportunity-driven. While capital remains selective, we expect increasing transaction activity in Q2 and Q3, positioning us well for strategic acquisitions and portfolio enhancements.
As always, we appreciate your trust and partnership. If you’d like to discuss opportunities or have any questions, feel free to reach out!
In Partnership,
Bryan & Tyler
Every great multifamily deal starts the same way: with smart capital, not just real estate.
At CF Capital, that’s where we begin.
In a market shaped by rising interest rates, evolving debt structures, and economic uncertainty—amplified by recent stock market volatility—our ability to navigate these forces is what turns good deals into great ones.
Capital markets are where equity and debt flow—through banks, private lenders, institutional players, and public markets. They determine the cost, structure, and availability of capital, driven by everything from Fed policy to market psychology.
For multifamily investors, this is where it starts. Your capital stack defines what you can buy, how you improve it, and what you’ll earn. In a market that’s always shifting, multifamily stays grounded—a resilient asset that keeps performing. And like any good ripple in still water, smart capital moves quietly but leaves a lasting mark.
But watching the market isn’t enough—we leverage it. Here’s how we turn knowledge into results.
Our recent investment in Island Club Apartments, a 314-unit waterfront community in the Indianapolis MSA, shows this strategy in action. We’re deploying $2.8 million in renovations on top of a prior $4.2 million repositioning—upgrading units, enhancing amenities, and elevating the resident experience.
The result: Stronger cash flow, increased asset value, and a durable return profile.
Our capital markets expertise gives investors an edge. We don’t chase returns—we build them. By anticipating trends and structuring intelligently, we reduce risk and generate consistent performance across the lifecycle of every asset.
Markets are tight. Rates are high. Uncertainty is real. But with the right strategy, that’s where the opportunity lives.
While equities swing, multifamily holds steady—and today, the ability to raise and deploy capital strategically is more critical than ever.
At CF Capital, we build value from the ground up—starting with disciplined, market-savvy capital strategies.
Behind the Scenes: CF Capital’s Institutional Approach to Transforming Underperforming Properties into High-Yielding Assets
At CF Capital, real estate investment goes beyond asset acquisition—it’s about strategic transformation, disciplined execution, and maximizing risk-adjusted performance.
As a leading institutional-grade investment firm, CF Capital specializes in acquiring, repositioning, and optimizing multifamily assets in high-growth markets across the U.S.
Through advanced data analytics, institutional investment strategies, and meticulous asset management, the firm consistently delivers exceptional, risk-adjusted returns for its investors.
CF Capital’s investment thesis is rooted in deep market intelligence, macroeconomic insights, and a proprietary underwriting framework that identifies undervalued assets with high intrinsic potential. The firm focuses on secondary and high-growth markets, particularly in the Midwest and Southeast, where affordability-driven migration trends and supply-demand imbalances create compelling investment opportunities.
Each investment undergoes a multi-layered diligence process that includes:
✔ Comprehensive market screening to assess employment growth, population trends, and rental demand elasticity.
✔ Advanced financial modeling that stress-tests asset performance across multiple economic scenarios.
✔ Risk-mitigated capital structuring that prioritizes stability while optimizing leverage for enhanced returns.
Precision-Driven Value Creation
CF Capital’s value-enhancement strategy is designed to systematically unlock upside potential through a combination of:
✔ Strategic capital improvements – Targeted renovations and rebranding initiatives that reposition properties to command premium rental rates.
✔ Technology-led asset optimization – Leveraging smart property management solutions and AI-driven analytics to enhance operational oversight and tenant engagement.
A prime (and recent) example of this execution-focused investment model is Island Club Apartments in Indianapolis, IN (Indianapolis MSA), a 314-unit waterfront community where CF Capital has structured a high-impact renovation program, layering an additional $2.8 million in capital enhancements on top of a prior $4.2 million repositioning initiative. The business plan includes amenity upgrades, unit modernizations, and an elevated resident experience, all designed to enhance asset valuation while optimizing cash flow durability.
CF Capital employs a sophisticated risk-management framework that integrates conservative underwriting, capital efficiency, and portfolio diversification to safeguard investor capital.
Key principles include:
✔ Scenario-based sensitivity analysis to evaluate asset performance under varied economic conditions.
✔ Dynamic capital allocation that balances yield optimization with downside protection.
✔ Proactive asset stewardship through hands-on management, continuous operational refinements, and strategic exit planning.
With a track record exceeding $1.3 billion in transactions, CF Capital has successfully executed, repositioned, and optimized numerous multifamily assets, driving sustained investor value.
Notable Transactions (with MSA Details):
The Strength of Multifamily Investments
The multifamily sector remains one of the most resilient, risk-mitigated asset classes, underpinned by structural demand drivers such as:
✔ A projected shortfall of 4.3 million apartments by 2035 (NAA & NMHC), reinforcing long-term rental demand.
✔ Demographic tailwinds, including the rise of "renter by choice" and "renter by necessity" populations sustaining high occupancy levels.
✔ Institutional capital inflows, as multifamily continues to outperform other asset classes in risk-adjusted return metrics.
Partnering with CF Capital
CF Capital’s ability to synthesize data-driven insights, execute institutional-grade strategies, and apply operational excellence makes it a premier investment partner for institutional investors, family offices, and private equity firms seeking high-quality, cash-flowing multifamily assets.
Hello Friends and Investors,
As we step into March, the multifamily landscape continues to evolve in response to shifting economic conditions. The Federal Reserve remains cautious on rate cuts, keeping capital markets tight, while operators are doubling down on efficiency, tenant retention, and cost management. Despite challenges, opportunities are emerging, especially in well-positioned secondary markets like the Midwest.
With Q1 nearing its close, we remain focused on strategic acquisitions, operational improvements, and disciplined execution to maximize value for our investors. Let’s dive into key updates for this month.
Market Overview
Multifamily Market Update: The Road Ahead
Midwest Market Intel: Stability & Strategic Opportunities
In the News
U.S. Cap Rate Survey H2 2024
Cap rates continue to hold steady, with trends varying across sectors and strategies. Sales volume is expected to trend upward during 2025.
Apollo to Privatize Bridge Investment Group for $1.5B
Apollo Global will acquire Bridge Investment Group for $1.5B, effectively taking the massive multifamily and industrial portfolio private.
What We're Reading
The Self-made Billionaire Effect: How Extreme Producers Create Massive Value
by John Sviokla & Mitch Cohen
Scores of top-tier entrepreneurs worked for established corporations before they struck out on their own and became self-made billionaires. People like Mark Cuban, John Paul DeJoria, Sara Blakely, and T. Boone Pickens all built businesses—in some cases, multiple businesses—that are among today’s most iconic brands.
CF Capital Updates
Speaking Engagements & Growth Initiatives
Looking Ahead
With rate cuts still on the horizon (and a potential trend developing in the Treasuries), we expect capital markets to gradually unlock liquidity later this year. Until then, we remain focused on long-term fundamentals, operational efficiency, and sourcing high-quality investment opportunities.
Thank you for your continued trust and partnership—we look forward to an exciting year ahead!
In Partnership,
Tyler Chesser & Bryan Flaherty
Co-Founders & Managing Partners, CF Capital
Hello Friends and Investors,
The first month of 2025 is already behind us, and if January was any indication, this year will be one of both challenges and opportunities in the multifamily space. Last week, Bryan and Tyler attended the NMHC 2025 Annual Meeting, where the industry’s top leaders connected & shared insights on capital markets, operational trends, and the outlook for multifamily investments. Amid shifting economic conditions, our strategy remains clear: prioritize operational excellence, disciplined acquisitions, and investor transparency.
NMHC 2025 Takeaways: Key Trends to Watch
The National Multifamily Housing Council’s annual gathering is a great way to meet with many of our partners, team and prospects and gain an even greater real-time pulse on where the industry is headed, to the benefit of our existing and prospective partners. We had a full slate of meetings with regionally focused brokers, lenders, institutional equity investors and leading service providers over the course of 3 days in Las Vegas. Some major takeaways include:
Midwest Market Intel: Stability & Opportunity
The Midwest continues to demonstrate resilience amid economic uncertainty, with fundamentals that support long-term multifamily investment.
We remain focused on leveraging these advantages to drive long-term value for our investors.
Featured Article
The Trump administration is more focused on keeping Treasury yields low rather than on what the Federal Reserve does, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said.
Read More
The Intentional Legacy
by David McAlvany
Will your children value their legacy? The history of the world is the story of great financial, cultural and ethical legacies built in one generation, only to be squandered by second and third generations who were unwilling and unprepared for the roles and responsibilities that accompany them. Learn More
Speaking Engagement & Team Growth
2025 Real Estate Economic Outlook
Tuesday, February 18th
8:00a - 11:30a
The Jeffersonian
10617 Taylorsville Rd.
Louisville KY 40299, US
We expect continued volatility in capital markets, but with that comes strong buying opportunities for those who are patient and disciplined. As always, we remain committed to executing our investment strategy and keeping you informed along the way.
Thank you for your trust and partnership—let’s make February a great month!
In Partnership,
Tyler Chesser & Bryan Flaherty Co-Founders & Managing Partners, CF Capital