At CF Capital, our edge isn’t guesswork—it’s keen market intel, deep key relationships and ultimately execution. Every month, we track three key performance indicators that keep us dialed in, nimble, and proactive across our multifamily portfolio.
These metrics aren’t just data points—they’re decision drivers.
1. Net Absorption: Are Renters Moving In—or Out?
Absorption rates tell us whether demand is rising or softening, at the metro, submarket and asset level. Strong absorption signals tenant confidence and leasing momentum. Slowing? That’s our cue to pivot—whether through pricing adjustments, incentives, or marketing.
2. Real-Time Rent Growth: What’s Performing, What’s Not
We track rent growth at the asset level, not just the market level. That means watching how specific unit types or floorplans perform so we can act fast—whether that’s refining a renovation plan, adjusting premiums, or identifying underperformance early.
In markets like the Midwest, where occupancy remains high and affordability drives demand, this level of precision helps us maximize NOI without overstepping tenant affordability.
3. Capital Flows & Lending Conditions: The Macro That Moves the Micro
Our investment strategy shifts with capital availability. We stay close to equity inflows, lending spreads, and financing terms across our core markets. That intel informs not just acquisitions—but refinances, recapitalizations, and exit strategies.
In today’s market, access to debt remains open—but only for sponsors with discipline and data to back their decisions. We continue to execute thoughtfully to be in this camp.
Why It Matters
These KPIs are a significant part of the foundation of our monthly reviews and investor updates.
They help us spot turning points before they show up in the headlines. They also reflect how we operate: active, agile, and intentional.
Want to see how we apply this data in real time—or how our Midwest focus is playing out in today’s market?
Let’s talk.
Hello Friends and Investors,
As summer’s momentum fades and the fall season settles in, it’s a powerful moment to reflect, recalibrate, and reaffirm our strategic direction. Despite the challenges these past years, CF Capital remains grounded, agile, and ready. We continue to anchor our approach in discipline — and if history is any guide, timing is everything.
Market Snapshot: Midwest Multifamily Holding Strong
Bottom Line: Midwest Multifamily continues to show durable fundamentals — healthy rents, occupancy, and demand — anchored by limited new supply and favorable policy tailwinds.
What We’re Watching: Active Positioning, Strategic Patience
Here’s where CF Capital stands today:
Our message is both grounded and forward-leaning: we’re ready to act when opportunities align with our standards.
Building for the Next Phase
As we continue laying the foundation for long-term growth, we’re expanding our leadership and deal-making capacity through the growth of our team:
If you know someone who aligns with our core values of Leadership, Excellence, Integrity, Purpose and Grit for either of these roles, please reach out. Level 10, A players only, please!
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| Why Smart Capital Is Staying PutWhy Smart Capital Is Staying Put: Long-Term Thinking in a Noisy MarketMarkets are noisy. Headlines shift by the day. But smart capital isn’t chasing chatter—it’s doubling down on fundamentals, location, and alignment with the future.[Read → HERE] |
End-of-Summer Reflection
As summer winds down and routines reset, we’re reminded that this business requires both discipline and patience. The last few years have tested every operator and investor, but they’ve also reinforced a simple truth: steady, thoughtful execution creates long-term success.
At CF Capital, we’re not in the business of chasing noise. We’re here to stay ready and continue to grow — so when the right opportunities come into view, we can move with confidence.
Thank you for being on this journey with us. We look forward to the months ahead and the opportunities they’ll bring to create lasting value together.
In Partnership,
Tyler & Bryan
Why Smart Capital Is Staying Put: Long-Term Thinking in a Noisy Market
Markets are noisy. Headlines shift by the day. But smart capital isn’t chasing chatter—it’s doubling down on fundamentals, location, and alignment with the future.
At CF Capital, that’s the discipline we practice. Because real wealth is built over decades, not news cycles.
Noise vs. Navigation
The past 18 months have tested conviction. Some investors backed away. Others pressed pause. As for seasoned investors? They didn’t flinch—they recalibrated.
Smart capital knows how to filter noise and focus on signal. And the signals are clear:
Consider this: In several Midwest metros, multifamily vacancy rates remain below the national average—even after two years of higher interest rates. That’s what staying power looks like.
This isn’t about timing the market. It’s about positioning for the next cycle—and the next decade.
Location + Fundamentals Still Win
Trends shift. Fundamentals don’t. Location matters. Strong operators matter. Cash flow matters.
That’s why we focus on multifamily in the Midwest and Southeast—markets with affordability, in-migration, and resilience. They weren’t the trendiest regions five years ago, and that’s exactly why they’re holding up today.
Our strategy is grounded in:
Building for 2030, Not 2025
At CF Capital, we don’t just invest for today—we invest for tomorrow. Our goal is to build portfolios that deliver wealth, tax efficiency, and freedom for the long run.
We partner with investors who value:
We’re investing actively—but only where fundamentals make sense today and in the years ahead.
The Long Game Is the Only Game
Markets may quiet. Capital may hesitate. But that’s when smart capital holds its ground.
At CF Capital, we don’t mistake noise for risk. We see opportunity in conviction, selectivity, and staying power.
If you want more than market noise—if you want alignment, discipline, and a partner that is building for 2030—let’s talk.
In multifamily commercial real estate (CRE), success rarely hinges on one big move. It’s the mindset—the invisible engine behind every decision—that separates operators who thrive from those who merely survive.
At CF Capital, we’ve found that three traits drive sustainable performance: Clarity, consistency, and mental resilience.
Clarity keeps us focused. In a world full of noise—market chatter, economic shifts, unexpected curveballs—clarity means knowing exactly what we’re building, who we’re serving, and why it matters. It’s not just about spotting good deals; it’s about aligning every move with a long-term strategy and a clear investment thesis. Without it, even great opportunities can become distractions.
Consistency builds trust—with investors, partners, and residents. It’s not glamorous, but it’s essential. Showing up every day, executing the fundamentals, and doing what we said we’d do—even when no one’s watching—is what turns potential into performance. Over time, consistency compounds.
Then there’s mental resilience—arguably the most critical edge in this business. Real estate is cyclical. Capital markets shift. Deals fall apart. I still remember the first time a late-stage property inspection revealed a surprise seven-figure capital expenditure. What seemed like a manageable renovation suddenly became a major overhaul, forcing us to rework the entire business plan and investor presentation in a matter of days.
On another acquisition, a loan assumption with an agency lender dragged on for months past the original closing date. We had to maintain the seller’s trust, keep investors confident, and manage the property manager’s pre-closing work—all without knowing if the deal would even close. On top of that, a fire broke out late in the transaction process, impacting an entire building and delaying the closing by another two months while we negotiated a resolution.
In moments like those, frustration and doubt are inevitable. But we always return to what this work truly demands: resilience. Not blind optimism, but the ability to take the hit, adjust quickly, and move forward with clarity intact.
At CF Capital, we don’t just invest in assets—we invest in mindset. It’s how we navigate complexity, manage risk with discipline, and lead through uncertainty.
Markets will always fluctuate, but the right mindset anchors performance.
In the end, mindset isn’t fluff. It’s a real competitive advantage—the behind-the-scenes force that turns smart strategies into real-world results. And it’s something we work to cultivate across our team and deals—every single day.
In this market, hesitation is a risk you can’t afford.
Every quarter your capital sits still, you’re not just missing out—you’re losing ground to faster movers.
At CF Capital, we’re seeing it firsthand: those who act decisively are capturing long-term value while others watch from the sidelines. Multifamily real estate is full of dislocation-driven opportunities—but only for those ready to move.
Let’s talk numbers. Delaying a $1M investment by just 12 months—assuming a 7% annualized return—can cost you approximately $70K in missed growth. Stretch that delay to three years, and the opportunity cost compounds to over $225K. This isn’t theoretical. It’s the silent drag on performance most investors underestimate—until it’s too late.
Meanwhile, we’re leaning into what we call precision over prediction.
We’re not trying to time the market. We’re underwriting with discipline, sourcing creatively, and locking in high-conviction, off-market deals—often negotiated directly with owners in a tight credit environment. These aren’t generic assets—they’re strategic acquisitions with built-in upside, made possible by speed and clarity, not guesswork.
While some investors wait for a signal, we’re already positioning for the next cycle. And based on everything we’re seeing—from loan maturities to value-add inflection points—that cycle isn’t coming. It’s already here.
This blog is part of a broader Q3 initiative focused on capital formation and transparency. From our soon-to-launch Investor Insights Hub to in-depth white papers, webinars, and sharp commentary across social, we’re showing accredited investors and partners exactly how and where we’re deploying capital now.
Want in? Let’s talk.
Because long-term wealth isn’t built by watching. It’s built by stepping in—when it matters most.
Hello Friends and Investors,
As the sun begins to set on summer, we’ve been reflecting on a timeless truth in this business: the real wins come to those who are steady in uncertainty and prepared for what’s next.
At CF Capital, that remains our approach as we evaluate opportunities, monitor evolving market conditions, and prepare for strategic moves in the second half of the year.
Market Overview
Market Pulse: Stability Beneath the Surface
The multifamily market continues to exhibit signs of regional strength amid national moderation:
Midwest markets are outperforming national rent trends, posting 3–4% YoY rent growth ~1.1% nationally (Yardi Matrix, July 2025).
Occupancies remain healthy, ranging between 93–95% across our core metros.
New construction has slowed dramatically, setting the stage for stronger absorption and pricing power into 2026.
Meanwhile, there’s ongoing discussion around Fed rate cuts, but investors should note: lenders are increasing spreads in some cases, meaning any near-term cuts may not materially lower borrowing costs. It's a reminder to underwrite to what is, not what we hope will be.
Event Recap: State of the Market Multifamily Roundtable
In partnership with CCIM Kentucky and Frost Brown Todd, CF Capital hosted a dynamic conversation last month exploring the real forces shaping CRE. We're excited to share with you the entire recording of the event.
Top takeaways:
This was a powerful gathering of 75+ attendees consisting of lenders, operators, attorneys, and investors—and we’re committed to staying ahead of these shifting tides so you don’t have to. We’re very happy to share the full recording for folks who were unable to attend in person.
10 Most Landlord-Friendly States in 2025
CF Top10States-1
TurboTenant - Landlording in the wrong state can quickly turn into a nightmare. You could end up with hard-to-evict tenants, high property taxes, and rent control that makes it impossible to keep up with the market.
For these reasons, knowing the country’s most landlord-friendly states is a wise move. Owning property in a state where eviction laws, property taxes, and policies all work in your favor makes real estate investing a whole lot easier.
The Geography of Multifamily’s Growth: Urban vs. Suburban (and Everything in Between)
Screenshot 2025-08-05 at 2.55.08 PM
Chandan Economics - The past decade has been a whirlwind for the multifamily sector — from the urban renaissance of the early 2010s to the workforce housing push of the late 2010s, and the post-pandemic reshuffling of geographic demand. The only constant has been its continuous evolution.
In this briefing, we explore how multifamily growth has unfolded across the urban spectrum over the past 10 years — and why the space between suburban and urban markets deserves a closer look.
Blog
Why Track Record & Discipline Matter More Than Ever
With loan maturities looming, elevated financing costs, economic unpredictability, and surging renter demand—investors are pushing sponsors....
Strategic Outlook: Second Half of 2025
We continue to evaluate a robust pipeline of potential acquisitions. The market remains relatively stable, and while we’re active in making offers, we’re maintaining discipline—we are not stretching for deals that don’t pencil or drift toward negative leverage.
We’re optimistic that one or more high-quality investments will come to fruition in the back half of 2025—and as always, we’ll bring them to your attention as soon as the time is right.
You'll be among the first to hear about these opportunities as they take shape.
End-of-Summer Perspective
As kids head back to school and vacations wind down, we’re reminded that the multifamily game is measured in seasons, not weeks.
We continue to operate with a mindset of calm, long-term capital stewardship—focused not on reacting to noise, but on quietly building momentum.
We’re grateful to be on this journey with you, and we look forward to what lies ahead.
In Partnership,
Tyler & Bryan
Multifamily investors are scrutinizing deals more closely than ever today.
As they should.
With loan maturities looming, elevated financing costs, economic unpredictability, and surging renter demand—investors are pushing sponsors to show more than a playbook. They want a defensible track record, stress-tested underwriting, and unwavering discipline.
Investors want to see consistent returns over multiple cycles. Beyond glossy IRRs, they want details: How did sponsorship teams manage cost overruns, leverage, refinancing brake points — and still deliver?
In a tightening capital market, disciplined underwriting is non‑negotiable. Sponsors need to run worst‑case scenarios on rent growth, occupancy, and future cap rate movements — not once, but routinely.
Success often lies in selecting the right markets. Institutional-grade sponsors identify locations with positive employment growth, supply pipelines under control, and resilient housing demand.
At the end of the day, nothing substitutes for “skin in the game.” Sponsors who co-invest signal conviction; those who don’t risk being seen as detached from outcomes.
How CF Capital Upholds These Standards
Established as an upper-Midwest and Southeast regional specialist, CF Capital’s formula is straightforward and practiced: source underperforming garden-style properties in growth MSAs → underwrite conservatively → reposition the asset with tactical value-add improvements → exit or refinance strategically.
Transparency & Investor-Centric Reporting
No surprises here. Investors receive monthly performance updates — including detailed financial reporting including P&L, general ledger, balance sheet, rent roll, unit renovation progress, and CAPEX project details, along with a detailed narrative on the state of the investment.
Our loan focus balances short- and long-term financing depending on asset type and business plan. Reserve budgeting (1–5% of purchase price) cushions against operational surprises, while stress testing supports refinancing discipline.
The firm’s co-founders, Tyler Chesser and Bryan Flaherty, bring hands-on experience as top-tier brokers and operators. Their leadership emphasizes integrity, purpose, excellence, and transparency — all built into CF’s core values.
What This Means for Investors
When investors scrutinize sponsors at the diligence table, CF Capital stands out — not through boastful claims, but through track record, discipline, and alignment:
Multifamily investors today demand more than just glossy brochures—they want hard evidence that a sponsor knows the terrain, plans for the rough patches, and aligns interests at every turn.
CF Capital delivers—with a consistent approach, scalable execution, and a team built to lead through cycles, not just ride the ups.
In partnership with CCIM Kentucky and Frost Brown Todd, CF Capital hosted a dynamic conversation last month exploring the real forces shaping CRE. CF's Tyler Chesser provides an in the trenches perspective on the key factors affecting the Midwest Multifamily Market today and his perspective on where the market is headed.
This was a powerful gathering of 75+ attendees consisting of lenders, operators, attorneys, and investors—and we’re committed to staying ahead of these shifting tides so you don’t have to. We’re very happy to share the full recording for folks who were unable to attend in person.
Click Image to View Video
Hello Friends and Investors,
Join Us Tomorrow (July 9) – for the Kentucky Chapter of CCIM's State of the Multifamily Market. We’re excited to be co-hosting the State of the Multifamily Market event at Frost Brown Todd, where we’ll break down where things stand nationally and here in the Midwest, what investors are demanding most, and how we’re positioning for the second half of 2025 and beyond.
CCIM State of the Multifamily Market
📍 Date: Wednesday, July 9
🕐 Time: 11:30a - 1:00p
🎟️ Reserve your spot + full details: [→LINK]
Whether you’re an active investor or simply looking to understand where multifamily fits in a volatile environment, this will be a high-value session you won’t want to miss. It will be recorded and circulated for those who cannot attend in person.
At the halfway point of 2025, we’re seeing the early signs of what we’ve been patiently positioning for: a market that’s slowly turning a corner. While volatility and uncertainty have been dominant themes for the past 24 months, long-term oriented investors are about to be rewarded—and we believe the second half of this year will offer some of the best opportunities we’ve seen in this cycle.
Market Overview
Trends We’re Watching Closely
At CF Capital, we’re staying aggressive in underwriting, touring, and offering—but remain committed to patience. The best opportunities often surface just after the market begins to turn.
Cap rates remain wide in secondary and tertiary markets, offering a yield advantage compared to compressed coastal pricing.
Rent growth is moderating nationally (~1% YoY), but the Midwest continues to outperform with 3–4% YoY growth in Class B suburban assets (Yardi Matrix, June 2025).
Interest rate pressure is easing slightly, and many analysts expect the first Fed rate cut as early as Q4 2025, offering relief for refinancing and acquisitions (Bloomberg, July 1).
Distress is real but selective—and not widespread. Smart investors are deploying with discipline, not desperation.
Industry Insights: IMN Southeast Multifamily Middle Markets Conference
In June, Bryan and I attended the IMN Southeast Multifamily Middle Markets Conference in Atlanta, where we connected with top operators, lenders, and equity partners.
Our biggest takeaway? There’s no magic bullet. The top-performing groups are winning by doing the fundamentals better than ever—execution, leadership, communication, and culture. We're proud to say that CF Capital continues to lean into these principles—and we’re also evolving through AI, tech, and systems that position us for what’s next.
Promissory Note: $1.65M Fully Subscribed
We’re pleased to share that the Cambridge Courtyard Promissory Note raise has been fully funded. Thank you to those who participated—your confidence and conviction make these opportunities possible.
We’re currently building a waiting list for similar opportunities, and may have 1–2 more promissory notes coming soon, along with a potential equity investment offering later this year. If you’d like to be among the first to preview these deals, reply directly to this email to join the priority list.
Final Word: Get Ready for the Next Wave
We believe the patience many of us have shown over the past few years is about to pay off. The noise is still loud—but so is the signal for disciplined operators and long-term capital.
If you’re looking to deploy in the right deal, at the right time, with the right partner—stay close. The next phase is coming, and we’re well-positioned to lead.
Thank you for your trust and partnership. Let’s finish the year strong, together.
Onward,
Tyler & Bryan
Managing Partners, CF Capital