Understanding Defensive Investing in Turbulent Times

During times of market volatility, defensive investing emerges as an anchor of stability. This investment strategy is relevant for institutional investors and high net worth individuals alike. Both of whom prioritize capital preservation and consistent returns over the tempest of market volatilities. 

Philip Fisher's poignant observation that "The stock market is filled with individuals who know the price of everything, but the value of nothing," underscores the principle of defensive investing, applied to markets well beyond stocks. Fisher's wisdom reminds investors of the importance of discerning true value — which lies not in the erratic swings of market prices, but in the enduring strength and consistent performance of robust assets. Rather than focusing on the daily ticker, a defensive strategy involves selecting investments that demonstrate long-term stability and reliability, aligning perfectly with Fisher's philosophy. 

  

The Essence of Defensive Investing 

Defensive investing avoids the allure of speculative gains, focusing instead on stability and reliability. This approach prioritizes assets that remain strong during economic downturns, such as essential services, healthcare, and other consumer staples—sectors known for providing essential services irrespective of economic conditions, along with an asset like multifamily real estate. 

 

Diversification: The Investor's Shield 

"Diversification is a protection against ignorance; it makes very little sense for those who know what they're doing." —Warren Buffett 

While Warren Buffett's approach to investing contains layers of strategic depth, the basic principle of diversification is still widely embraced as a key defensive tactic. Instead of putting all one's financial eggs in one basket, spreading investments across different types of assets helps shield an investor's portfolio from the negative effects of any single investment that may perform poorly. 

Put simply, diversification means owning a variety of assets. This strategy can reduce the risk that an investor's overall portfolio will suffer if one particular investment decreases in value. It's like having different types of crops in a field; if one fails, the others may still thrive, providing a safety net. 

The Pursuit of Quality 

When building a solid portfolio, defensive investors look for high-quality assets supported by strong financial performance and stability. These are the investments selected for their proven resilience in tough economic times and serve as the anchor for a defensive investment strategy. 

The Bulwark of Bonds 

Fixed-income securities, like bonds, are extremely predictable stalwarts. They provide consistent income streams and maintain their footing due to low default risks, becoming a safe haven when the investment climate turns volatile. 

Fixed-income securities, like bonds, are extremely predictable stalwarts. They provide consistent income streams and maintain their footing due to low default risks, becoming a safe haven when the investment climate turns volatile. 

Navigating a Smooth Course with Low Volatility Stocks 

Defensive investors prefer low volatility stocks for their more predictable nature, allowing them to enjoy steadier, if not spectacular, returns—an approach that embodies the investment maxim "slow and steady wins the race." 

Cash Reserves: The Strategic Reserve 

Liquidity is a key yet often overlooked element in defensive investing. Maintaining a cash reserve is essential for investors, as it allows them to stay adaptable during market downturns and to seize investment opportunities that may appear, much like an emergency fund can help weather financial storms. 

Timing and Patience: Navigating the Long Haul 

Defensive investing advocates for a long-term perspective, focusing on the steady accumulation of wealth and its protection rather than trying to predict short-term market fluctuations. This strategy highlights the value of patience and the passage of time in creating a robust investment portfolio. 

 

Multifamily real estate remains in demand, complementing defensive investment strategies.

Anchoring Stability with Multifamily Real Estate 

Multifamily real estate, with its persistent demand regardless of economic cycles, naturally dovetails with the principles of defensive investing. This form of investment is not only about maintaining equilibrium but also about benefiting from diversification, cash flow, tax advantages, and appreciation potential. 

Stability and Cash Flow 

"Real estate cannot be lost or stolen, nor can it be carried away. Purchased with common sense, paid for in full, and managed with reasonable care, it is about the safest investment in the world." Reflecting on the words of Franklin D. Roosevelt’s 's words, the allure of real estate as a stable and tangible asset becomes clear. It not only offers the promise of security but also the potential for generating consistent cash flow, making it a cornerstone for those seeking a defensive approach to investing. 

Diversification Benefits 

The unique characteristics of real estate can help counterbalance the performance of securities in a portfolio, providing a buffer against the ebb and flow of stock market volatilities and the surrounding economic climate. 

Tax Advantages and Appreciation 

Real estate's attractiveness in a defensive investment strategy is significantly enhanced by its tax benefits and potential for appreciation. 

Tax Advantages: 

Appreciation: 

Real estate values tend to increase over time, offering the potential for profit upon sale and contributing to long-term wealth growth. 

Benefits for a Defensive Strategy: 

These aspects underline real estate’s role in safeguarding against market volatility and ensuring consistent, long-term value growth. 

Strategic Considerations 

The defensive investor must be astute in selecting properties in vibrant markets and managing costs and operations effectively to ensure real estate serves its intended role in the broader investment strategy. 

 

Integrating Defensive and Growth Strategies 

Adding multifamily real estate to your investment portfolio can be a smart move, especially when the goal is to fortify against unpredictable market swings. This kind of investment often brings stability and consistent income that can be hard to find in more volatile markets. 

Defensive investing isn't just another choice—it's an essential part of any smart financial plan. Institutional investors and high net worth individuals alike are looking for ways to protect and grow their wealth, even when the economic outlook is volatile. As Benjamin Graham famously advised, investment is more about managing risks than chasing returns, and that advice is especially relevant today. 

At CF Capital, our focus is on multifamily syndication, which allows our investors to pool their resources and invest in properties they might not have access to on their own. We're not about chasing the latest stock picks or jumping into volatile markets. Instead, we believe in the long-term stability and potential for passive income that multifamily properties can offer. Whether you're new to investing or looking to diversify your holdings, CF Capital is dedicated to helping you navigate these complex investments with confidence. 

From the Desk of CF Capital: August Investor Report

Hello Friends and Investors,

The last month has been quite eventful in our country and across the world. As the 2024 U.S. presidential election approaches, we expect tensions to remain high. In July, President Trump miraculously survived an assassination attempt, and President Biden decided to drop out of the race, with VP Kamala Harris emerging as the presumptive Democratic nominee. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve hinted at potential rate cuts in September, leading to a decline in treasury yields following revised economic data. Are we on the brink of a soft landing, or is a hard landing more likely as recession expectations rise?

In addition to these domestic developments, global conflicts in the Middle East, Eastern Europe, and South Asia are intensifying, fueling fears of broader geopolitical tensions. As investors, it’s crucial to stay informed without becoming overwhelmed or pessimistic, especially with many events beyond our control.

These factors impact our portfolio management and short-term growth strategies. However, our focus remains firmly on the long term, and these current events are just that—current—and they too shall pass. Our North Star continues to be investing for the long term and managing through short-term noise. During both good times and bad, we aim to find opportunities where we can identify and drive value.

We’ve been saying that the current multifamily market in our region presents a “window of opportunity” to acquire attractive deals at a compelling basis—below replacement cost and well off the historic highs of recent years. Now, we are assessing whether this window will expand, prolong, or retract. With rates potentially declining, the market could become more conducive to transactions, which have largely stalled over the past year. However, this could also reignite irrational exuberance, driving pricing and cap rate compression, trends that have eased since mid-2022.

We remain nimble and prepared for either scenario, maintaining our long-term perspective while avoiding the trap of short-term volatility. Long-term trends are our calling card, and partners like you resonate with this approach, knowing that it’s impossible to “outsmart” the market consistently.

For investors on this journey with us, thank you for your continued trust in our team to steward your capital. We are committed to elevating our performance for your success. For those considering joining us, we would be honored to discuss your goals, the current market conditions, and future opportunities.

Here's to wishing you a great month as the kids head back to school and routines return!

In Partnership,
Tyler & Bryan

PS. There's no higher compliment than you referring us to your friends, family, and colleagues. We'd be honored by the opportunity to become a part of their trusted networks. Share your experience investing with CF Capital & invite others to become an investor here.

How the Bond Market Impacts Real Estate

The bond market is a critical component of the global financial system, where entities like governments, municipalities, and corporations raise funds by issuing debt securities to investors. While it may appear to operate distinctly from the real estate market, there is a closely knit relationship between the two. Understanding this interaction is key to recognizing not only the current economic landscape but also to forecasting potential shifts in real estate values and interest rates. 

 

Understanding Interest Rate Movements 

The bond market's influence extends greatly into real estate through interest rates. Bond yields, which move inversely to bond prices, often presage changes in mortgage rates. This correlation between bond yields and mortgage rates is fundamental; as investors demand higher yields on bonds, lenders adjust mortgage rates accordingly to remain competitive. This dynamic can directly influence the real estate market by altering the affordability of loans for borrowers, potentially dampening market activity when rates are high. 

Furthermore, an uptrend in bond yields translates into steeper borrowing costs. This scenario affects not only prospective homeowners but also real estate investors and developers who rely on financing for purchasing and building projects. Higher mortgage rates can slow down the real estate market by compressing leveraged yields and impacting valuations. 

 

Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) Under the Microscope 

Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) offer a clear lens through which the effects of bond market fluctuations can be observed. As entities that finance real estate through investor shares, REITs are sensitive to changes in the bond market due to their reliance on financing and their payout structure to investors. When bond yields are high, the fixed income they offer can become more appealing than the variable dividends of REITs, potentially detracting from REIT investments. Conversely, in environments of low bond yields, REITs might appear more attractive due to their higher yield potential. 

 

Navigating Inflation's Terrain 

Inflation significantly affects both the bond and real estate markets by influencing interest rates and bond yields. Inflation typically leads to higher bond yields as investors look for returns that offset the reduced purchasing power of future payments. This effect can create a challenging environment for real estate. On one hand, inflation can push property values and rents higher. On the other hand, it can increase borrowing costs through higher mortgage rates, complicating the impact on real estate investments. 

 

A stack of five rows of coins

Inflation affects the bond and real estate markets by influencing interest rates and yields.

Liquidity and Sentiment: Market Dynamics 

The liquidity and sentiment in the bond market can also sway investment trends in real estate indirectly. The overall liquidity of the bond market often reflects broader economic conditions and investor confidence, which in turn influences real estate investment decisions. During times of economic uncertainty or volatility, the perceived stability of bonds might temporarily outweigh the potential gains from real estate investments, directing capital flows accordingly. 

 

The Influence of Government Interventions 

Government policies can have a profound impact on both the bond and real estate markets. Central bank policies, such as interest rate adjustments or quantitative easing, can drastically alter the landscape for both bonds and real estate. Investment strategies require recalibration when these two interacting markets evolve in response to policy changes.  


Strategic Partnership for Institutional Investors in Multifamily Syndication 

The intricate relationship between the bond market and real estate requires constant vigilance and strategic foresight from investors. Understanding the dynamics at play allows for better positioning in response to economic indicators and bond market movements, allowing informed decision-making for optimizing real estate portfolio performance in any economic climate. 

At CF Capital, our expertise in multifamily investment provides institutional investors with a strategic vehicle for diversifying into real estate. This approach allows for significant leverage of resources, granting access to high-value, multi-family real estate opportunities that may otherwise be beyond reach. By focusing on pooling the financial strength and strategic acumen of institutional investors, we unlock exclusive investment prospects. This ensures our partners are perfectly positioned to benefit from real estate's potential in any economic climate. Our commitment lies in equipping institutional investors with the insights, opportunities, and strategic foresight required to navigate the complex relationship between the bond and real estate markets, aiming towards long-term financial success.  

So, get in touch with us today and leverage our expertise and market presence to harness the strategic advantages necessary for your long-term financial objectives in the real estate market. 

From the Desk of CF Capital: September Investor Report

Hello Friends and Investors, 
 
Hope you had a great Labor Day weekend and unofficial end to your summer! While the end of summer is always bittersweet, change is in the air with a new season right around the corner, bringing excitement and newness. Of course Fall includes favorite past-times like football, pumpkin spice lattes (PSLs anyone?!), colorful foliage depending on where you live, and generally comfortable temperatures across the country. 
 
In this particular season, we're also in the midst of a historically significant 2024 Presidential election and we are anticipating potential rate cutting cycle to commence from the central bank beginning perhaps this month. Implications of the next few months will be momentous, for many years, as things play out. We invite you to make your voice heard, as it's our civic duty to be heard and our wishes to be reflected in the policies implemented across our government. We continue to pay close attention and to find opportunities that exist amidst the very loud noise. 
 
On the ground level, we continue to see opportunity in our markets and within our existing portfolio, so we're excited to share a few updates.

1. Portfolio Performance and Key Updates 

Pending Acquisition: In September, we are on track to finalize the acquisition of Island Club, a 314 Unit Multifamily community in the Eagle Creek submarket of Indianapolis, IN. This asset is expected to generate attractive returns due to it's location, inherent value, strong day 1 performance, accretive assumed financing, straightforward low-risk business plan and forced appreciation. We will begin renovations immediately upon closing, with completion anticipated by the end of Q4 2026. We are confident that this asset, with it's very attractive assumed debt and low-risk business plan, will significantly contribute to our portfolio’s performance and deliver consistent cash flow and capital appreciation for our partners. 
 
Financing Extension Completed: In August, we successfully extended our financing for one of our communities in Indiana. Given the current state of the capital markets, we deemed it would be in the best interest of the investment for us to continue forward for another year to continue to drive value through further renovations and NOI growth, while the capital markets potentially ease further. For investors who are looking for an opportunity to protect their capital from persistent inflation, we are offering 12% yield on a promissory note to complete further interior unit renovations. We've included a section below for more details on this opportunity. 
 
Operational Successes: Our portfolio continues to perform amidst the noise, with a notable recent increase in occupancy rates across our properties. While there continues to be work to be done (as always!), proactive management strategies and targeted marketing campaigns have successfully reduced vacancy rates and enhanced overall tenant satisfaction. We are also pleased to report that rent collections remain strong and above industry averages. 
 
Property Upgrades: We are advancing with several property improvement projects designed to enhance tenant experience and increase property value. Recent upgrades include modernized amenities, data plan internet installations, and maintenance enhancements. Feedback from residents and our teams have been very positive, which bodes well for continued resident retention and satisfaction. As we take care of our residents, our investments are positioned for long-term success. 

2. Market Trends, Insights & Opportunities

Economic Overview: The multifamily real estate market remains largely resilient despite broader economic fluctuations, a core benefit of investing in human shelter. Demand for rental properties continues to be extremely healthy, driven by factors such as domestic and international migration, and a relatively strong job market in most industries. Current economic indicators in our Midwest/Southeast region suggest a stable environment for real estate investments, with steady rental growth and low vacancy rates, yet we remain vigilant in the face of anticipated (and unanticipated) economic headwinds - largely focused on the macro level job market stability and consumer stability. 
 
Interest Rates and Financing: Federal funds rates have been in a period of stabilization after the historic rate hiking cycle of the past two years, yet bond markets continue to exhibit a bit of volatility, based on the economic data reported and absorbed across the markets. We are leveraging favorable terms via loan assumptions (such as our current pending acquisition) on mortgages placed in the past 2.5+ years to optimize our capital structure and enhance overall returns for our investors, and are beginning to see some relief on the new origination side for deals available free & clear. Our team is closely monitoring market conditions to capitalize on any opportunities that exist during this "window of opportunity" buyer's market that persists, focused on positive leverage, acquisitions well below replacement value and low-risk value add business plans. 
 
Local Market Dynamics & Upcoming Opportunities: Our targeted markets of the major MSAs in IN, KY, OH and TN are experiencing steady population growth and economic development and steady new multifamily development, retaining equilibrium and continued rent growth. These factors contribute to higher rental demand and a trickle down is property value appreciation, all things being equal. We continue to conduct thorough market research to identify emerging submarket trends and investment opportunities that align with our strategic goals. We will keep you informed as new secured opportunities arise that provide asymmetric risk to return potential with light value add B to B+ assets in A/B locations. Many markets outside of our target markets, such as major growth (read: boom or bust) markets throughout the Sunbelt, have seen challenging operational conditions due to major influxes of new supply delivered to the market, placing downward pressure on revenue. We're reminded that in a market like this, slow and steady wins the race. 

3. Appreciation & Long Term Mindset

We want to extend our sincere gratitude to each of you for your continued support and confidence in our multifamily real estate ventures during these transitional times in our economic and political history. Your partnership is instrumental in driving our collective success, and we are committed to delivering exceptional results for the long haul. 
 
Should you have any questions or wish to speak to us further about your objectives or about anticipated opportunities, please do not hesitate to reach out to us. We are here to support you and ensure your investment experience is rewarding, enjoyable and transparent. 
 
Thank you once again for your partnership. We look forward to continuing our journey together and achieving new milestones in the coming months. Here's to wishing you a great September! 
 
In Partnership, 
Bryan & Tyler