CF CAPITAL | ELEVATING COMMUNITIES TOGETHER
Hello Friends and Investors,
There's a quote we've been thinking about lately - attributed to Thomas Edison:
"Opportunity is missed by most people because it is dressed in overalls and looks like work."
It's an idea that captures where we are right now. The multifamily market hasn't suddenly become easy. Geopolitical tensions, rate volatility, and lingering bid-ask gaps continue to define the landscape. But underneath the noise, real work is happening - and that work is positioning CF Capital for the next chapter.
Q1 2026 was one of our most active quarters from an acquisitions standpoint since the market correction began. We evaluated over 30 deals, submitted offers on 7, and continue to source opportunities across our target markets - both on and off-market. We consolidated property management under a single operating platform, onboarded a new asset management consultant, and formally engaged a brokerage team to execute a refinancing on a two-property portfolio maturing this summer.
None of this makes headlines. But this is exactly the kind of work that separates sponsors who are ready when the window opens from those who are scrambling to catch up.
We don't wait for the perfect market. We prepare for it.
The past several weeks have introduced a fresh layer of uncertainty. The U.S. conflict with Iran that began in late February pushed oil prices sharply higher and sent the 10-year Treasury yield up roughly 40 basis points in March, reaching an 8-month high near 4.44% before pulling back to around 4.30% on ceasefire speculation.
For multifamily investors, this matters directly. Higher treasuries translate to higher borrowing costs, which compress deal margins and widen the gap between buyer and seller expectations. In a market where the bid-ask spread was already the primary barrier to transaction activity, rate volatility makes price discovery even harder.
Our honest read: we believe this disruption is likely temporary. Fed Chair Powell has signaled that the central bank views the oil shock as a supply-driven event and is inclined to look through it rather than respond with policy tightening. The yield curve remains positively sloped - the 10-year to 2-year spread sits at roughly 50 basis points - which historically signals continued economic expansion rather than contraction.
But we don't pretend to predict geopolitics or interest rates. What we can control is activity, discipline, and readiness. There will always be macro noise - tariffs, elections, conflicts, rate uncertainty. The firms that win over full cycles are the ones that stay in the market through all of it.
What the national data is telling us:
National apartment rents rose modestly in March, with the average reaching approximately $1,719 - marking four consecutive months of positive rent growth following a flat-to-negative stretch in the second half of 2025. Gains remain modest relative to typical spring leasing seasonality, but the trajectory has clearly inflected.
The supply picture continues to improve. After delivering roughly 550,000 new units in 2025, construction starts have fallen to their lowest level in over a decade. The pipeline is thinning, and demand - anchored by the persistent affordability gap between renting and homeownership - remains durable. Monthly mortgage payments on a median-priced home remain roughly $1,200 higher than the average apartment rent, keeping millions of households in the renter pool.
Our Midwest and Upper Southeast markets continue to outperform. Louisville was among the top rent growth markets in February's Apartments.com report, posting +0.6% month-over-month gains - while overbuilt Sun Belt markets like Austin (-5.1% YoY), Denver (-3.3%), and Phoenix (-3.3%) continued to struggle under excess supply. Our core markets benefit from lower development pipelines, diversified employment bases, and pricing that reflects today's capital environment - not yesterday's optimism.
We continue to believe we are past the bottom of this cycle. That doesn't mean euphoria. It means continued discipline, selective engagement, and being prepared when the math works.
Over 30 deals evaluated. 7 offers submitted. Zero compromises on underwriting standards.
This was by design. We believe being active - seeing every deal possible, on-market and off - is what's required to find opportunities that genuinely make sense. Volume of activity does not mean volume of acquisitions. It means a wider funnel produces higher-quality outcomes.
Of the deals we passed on, the reasons were consistent: basis too high relative to in-place income, rent growth assumptions that lacked local support, capital structures that required too much optimism, or submarkets with unfavorable supply dynamics.
Of the deals we offered on, the common threads were assets we genuinely liked - strong locations, defensible business plans, attractive basis, and projected yields that compensated appropriately for assumed risk.
The competitive dynamics remain instructive. On one core-plus opportunity, we stretched to a net yield at the floor of what most equity partners would accept - and a competing buyer still came in several million dollars higher than the entire field. That kind of pricing behavior tells us that pockets of the market are still not underwriting to today's reality.
We remain in active dialogue on a multi-property portfolio where we liked two of the three assets. The seller is weighing portfolio buyers, but this opportunity remains potentially alive.
The pipeline is active. We are touring, underwriting, and engaging brokers and sellers continuously. Transaction activity nationally is expected to increase in 2026 as lenders force maturities, capital needs to find a home, and the market that has been starved for activity for three years begins to loosen.
We intend 2026 to be meaningfully more active than 2025 - and we have the infrastructure, team, and discipline to make that happen.
Occupancy remains healthy. Portfolio-wide physical occupancy stands at approximately 92%, with multiple assets tracking at or above underwritten occupancy targets. Our strongest-performing assets are exceeding original acquisition underwriting benchmarks on occupancy - a direct result of focused property management, resident experience improvements, and disciplined leasing strategies.
Rent growth since acquisition tells the value-creation story. Average occupied rents across the portfolio have grown over 23% since close - driven by strategic unit renovations, operational improvements, and market-appropriate rent positioning. Several assets have achieved 25-40% rent growth since acquisition, demonstrating that active asset management - not speculation - drives returns.
Debt positioning is strengthening. Multiple assets in the portfolio now sit on long-term, fixed-rate agency debt with healthy debt service coverage ratios. This provides stability, predictability, and insulation from rate volatility - precisely the kind of structure that allows us to operate from a position of strength regardless of where the 10-year moves in any given week.
Refinancing in motion. We have officially engaged a brokerage team to execute the refinancing of a two-property portfolio we own. We are well-positioned and are proactively managing this process with ample lead time.
Asset Management capability expanding. In Q1, we brought on a new asset management consultant - and early returns have been very positive. We're currently testing this engagement across two assets and look forward to deepening the relationship. Continuing to enhance our team and capabilities is how we deliver an extraordinary experience and return on investment for our partners.
We recently published a new white paper exploring how disciplined sponsors engineer returns through conservative structuring, active oversight, and embedded liquidity planning - not market timing or speculation.
Key themes include why discipline starts before capital is deployed, how conservative structuring serves as risk management, and why the firms that win do fewer deals - but the right deals, structured correctly and executed with discipline.
Apartments.com — Multifamily Rent Growth Report, March 2026National rents posted their fourth consecutive month of positive growth, though momentum remains gradual...
CBRE — Potential Impact of Rising Oil Prices on Real Estate ValuesCBRE's research team examines how the current oil price shock may affect cap rates across property types...
The Outsiders
by William Thorndike
This book profiles eight CEOs who dramatically outperformed their peers - not through aggressive growth or flashy strategies, but through unconventional, disciplined capital allocation. They bought when others were selling. They returned capital when others were empire-building. They prioritized per-share value creation over top-line growth.
We're grateful to have recently received testimonial videos from several of our investors sharing their experience partnering with CF Capital.
As we move deeper into 2026, we expect to bring new investment opportunities to our network. If you'd like to be among the first to review upcoming offerings, we invite you to schedule a brief introductory call with our team.
Whether you're a current investor, a prospective partner, or simply exploring how multifamily real estate fits into your broader strategy - we welcome the conversation.
"Opportunity is missed by most people because it is dressed in overalls and looks like work."
— Thomas Edison
As always, thank you for your continued trust and partnership.
In Partnership,
Tyler & Bryan
