CF CAPITAL | ELEVATING COMMUNITIES TOGETHER
Hello Friends and Investors,
For six and a half years, we've sent you the CF Capital Investor Report. Beginning with this issue, you'll receive it under a new brand: The Signal.
The change is intentional. What we send you has grown into more than a monthly report - it's our point of view on the markets we operate in, the cycles we invest through, and the discipline we believe separates durable sponsors from the rest. The new name reflects that. The voice, the discipline, and the investor-first posture won't change. The bar will.
Going forward, every issue will be built around four standing sections: Market Perspective, Regional Read, From the Desk, and Inside CF Capital. Some months one will run heavier than another, by design. We'd rather give you depth where it matters than force balance where it doesn't.
Thank you for reading and for holding us to a high standard. That standard is what makes this work.
The Market Wants to Move. What Will Make It?
Three years into a transaction freeze, multifamily is finally thawing - but unevenly. Activity is rising, the data is clear on that. What's less clear is when, and where, the broader market actually breaks open.
That's the question our investors are asking us most often right now.
The Signs Are Real
CBRE reported U.S. property sales revenue up 64% year-over-year in Q1 2026, with its transactional businesses posting their highest growth rate of the current cycle. Walker & Dunlop's transaction volume grew from $7 billion in Q1 2025 to $18 billion in Q4 - a 161% increase through the year - and they entered Q1 2026 with a $15 billion pipeline, more than 2x the prior year. MSCI Real Assets data shows apartment sales volume rose 9% in 2025 to $165.5 billion, with cap rates holding steady at roughly 5.7% for eight consecutive quarters.
These are the most credible names in the business reporting the same direction: capital is moving.
But Mostly in Pockets
On the ground in our footprint, it looks more like a market with two speeds. In coastal and gateway metros, institutional capital has reentered, debt markets are functioning, and price discovery has progressed enough for trades to clear. In secondary markets and the broader middle of the country, the bid-ask gap is narrower than it was eighteen months ago - but it hasn't closed.
The market wants to transact. In some corners, it is. In others, it's still more of the same we've seen for two years.
What Could Change It
Two forces, in our view, will determine when the broader market opens up.
Our Read
We believe the second half of 2026 looks meaningfully more active than the first. The combination of forced refinancing decisions, expanded agency lending, and three years of pent-up demand from disciplined buyers creates a setup where the bid-ask spread closes - not because sellers capitulate at scale, but because the cost of waiting becomes higher than the cost of transacting.
The market is starting to move. We've spent the last three years preparing for it.
| On the Ground in Our Footprint
National data tells one story. The view from inside our markets - broker calls, tour schedules, LOIs that get pulled at the last minute - tells a more textured one.
Here's what we're seeing across Louisville, Lexington, Indianapolis, and Columbus that doesn't always show up in national coverage: deals are transacting in our markets in part because they're being used to offset losses elsewhere. Sponsors and institutional owners with portfolio exposure to overbuilt Sun Belt and coastal markets - Austin, Phoenix, Denver, parts of Florida - are sitting on assets they can't easily sell at acceptable basis. Many are underwater on 2021-vintage acquisitions. To meet redemption requests, fund obligations, or simply rebalance, they're selling the stronger pieces of their portfolios first. Our markets are often those stronger pieces. Translation: pricing on Midwest assets right now reflects, in part, the fact that they're the ones holding up. That's a reason to pay attention to what's actually trading, not just the headline volume. Our markets aren't transacting because they're distressed. They're transacting because they're holding up well enough to fund someone else's distress.
Institutional capital is back in selectively, and it's concentrating in newer-vintage Class A and B+ assets where stabilization is in view and capex risk is contained. That's a meaningful shift from twelve months ago. Older product - much of the 1970s and 1980s vintage that defined the value-add cycle of the last decade - is being shunned by institutional buyers right now. Higher capex carry, insurance volatility, and the operational complexity of running aging assets are getting priced in directly. Private capital and regional operators with execution capability are the dominant buyers in that segment, often at meaningfully wider spreads. We're open to that vintage selectively - the right basis, the right submarket, the right execution plan. The dislocation is real, and so is the opportunity for sponsors with operating capability and patient capital. But the underwriting bar is higher, not lower, on those deals. What we're not seeing - and consider this a positive signal for disciplined sponsors - is the return of speculative bidders willing to underwrite double-digit rent growth and 50-basis-point cap-rate compression. That kind of underwriting was endemic in 2021. It is largely absent today, even as activity rises. |
We're Hiring
This month, we're hiring an Operations Manager to work directly with the founders as a right-hand execution role, on a path that earns toward broader leadership over time. The role is based in our Downtown Louisville HQ.
We're sharing it here because the single biggest constraint on a founder-led firm at this stage isn't deal flow or capital - it's bandwidth. Every hour spent on follow-through and project management is an hour not spent on capital formation, deal sourcing, and the relationships that compound this business. This hire is how we raise that ceiling.
If you know an exceptional operator - three to seven years of experience in operations, executive support, project management, consulting, or financial services - we'd be grateful for the introduction. Real estate experience is a plus but not required. The most important traits are relentless follow-through, strong organization, and the kind of judgment that lets someone move without constant direction.
Full role description and application: Click Here →
Why Discipline Is Driving Multifamily Performance
Tyler & Bryan recently contributed an editorial piece to MHN, and the article frames 2026 as the cycle where capital is back but newly disciplined ...
Apartment Industry Shrugs as Fed Holds Rates Steady Yet Again
Apartment Industry Shrugs as Fed Holds Rates Steady Yet Again Tyler was quoted in this Multifamily Dive...
Never Split the Difference
by Chris Voss
Voss's framework - built from FBI hostage negotiation - argues that the best outcomes come from understanding what the other side actually needs, not from splitting differences down the middle. We've found the lesson translates directly to the work of acquiring assets, structuring debt, and stewarding investor relationships: the deals that compound are rarely the ones where everyone meets in the middle, but the ones where both sides leave knowing they were genuinely heard.
We're grateful to have recently received testimonial videos from several of our investors sharing their experience partnering with CF Capital.
"The best way to predict the future is to build it."
— Peter Drucker
Most of the long-term capital partnerships we've built started with a single conversation - often before there was any deal on the table, and often years before any check was written. The relationships compound. The deals follow.
If something in this letter resonated, or if now feels like the right time to start a conversation, we'd welcome it.
Thank you for reading the inaugural issue of The Signal. The next issue arrives the first week of June.
In Partnership,
Tyler & Bryan
